A matter of frequencies: a new model
It all started as a standard revision routine. The code analysis tool showed some issues (it shows a lot of issues, definitively) that could be easily corrected.
Stair Seats
Most of us have a general knowledge of what statistic does: it extracts from data some relevant information about the data itself. What a neural network does is to add a layer of correlation between the data and relate it to the desired output. You must instruct a neural network, before using it. You must…
Waves and Cycles
When you get the patterns into the wave observation, you will see the cycles. Cycles that expand and contract, that generates trends, cycles of any dimension. Cycles that change continuously.
Waves
Today I would like to talk about waves. The markets express themselves through waves. But first, let’s look at waves. When on the shore, look at waves. look at them for a long time and pattern will arise behind your eyes. When I first attempted to put a neural network at work, the real first…
How r.Virgeel is trained
Following the requests coming from some users that were initially confused about how to interpret the signals coming out from r.Virgeel, I think that nothing is better than to explain how the indicators are produced. I have never done it before so extensively. The process is very different from the calculations for a technical indicator…
Bifurcations, minority reports and r.Virgeel’s jargon
I have published the usual monthly update and in the post I have included a significant minority report. One subscriber was surprised by the existence of a “minority report” and asked how does it work. It is an interesting question, that I cannot reply exhaustively, without revealing some well-kept secret about the building of the…
Forecast/ability 2
In the previous post “Forecast/ability” I did refer to the daily a.i. forecasts and I showed the results of a long and extensive research on the quality of the response of the model. But when we come to the weekly and to the monthly forecast, things change radically and for the best. Undoubtedly, weekly and…
Forecast/ability
Following my previous post “New Tools at the Horizon“, one question was twirling in my mind: why the stock market is forecastable, but the forecasts are not affordable? The forecastability of the market is an evidence, because if it were not – being it just a random walk – there would not be the possibility…
Bifurcation at last!
If you’ve read here and there around the blog, you know I sometimes used the word “bifurcation” to indicate double exit situations, but I’ve never been able to show them, before. Now I’m building a new tool and the results are plenty of surprises. One is the following chart: Next day bar is forecasted quite…
Going Forward
For many months, I’ve tried to put together the pieces to have a long term database, monthly based and with a huge history. I was moved by the progress of the monthly forecast, that I see sharper than before. No way. Data is largely unavailable. Very few series of mayor commodities and indices are out…
Astonishing results
The S&P 500 has entered a new never seen before territory, passing 2900 level on Monday, and you may wonder how it is possible that r.Virgeel may forecast something that it has never seen before. It’s a good question. You have to know that neural networks, if applied to a well designed model, have the…
Latest performance
The following slider shows some latest forecasts brewed by r.Virgeel on daily time frame: it is almost in realtime, as it shows how the model has acted since the last bottom in 2700 area in late June, starting from the close of latest 27th of June to 18th of July, for 15 bars, so three…
Are you kidding?
Going throug the whole materials that I have accumutated during spxbot development, I crossed this post from Dec. 19th 2014, available here. This was the very day I opened my eyes, this chart demontrated that, even if it was in it’s very first steps, r.Virgeel could see “things that we humans…” The chart is here.…
Spxbot robo-advisory performance
(this post was originally published in the newsletter no.1 in mid January. Probably I will not publish any performance related data in the future, mainly beacause r.Virgeel is not a trading system and also because real performance depends on a lot of factors, depending on your location, tax burden, investment strategy, etc. Anyway, the first…
A brief history of SPXBOT
In the late 80s, I crossed with BrainMaker, a suggestive piece of software that let you play with neural networks. I was working as an architect and I was self taught in the theory of patterns as formulated by Christopher Alexander. On one side pattern recognition, on the other side patterns in reality. Nice field…
Riding the wave and then… splash!
Following my previous post, I would like to point out that approaching the a.i. advisory, you have to change your mind. With most probability, you are trained in technical analysis, various techniques to train your eye and numbers to correlate the stream of data. With an extended application to chart reading and some discipline, it’s…
Model Training Update
The model needs training. The training tools have been deeply revised. In the beginning the training was done by hand (!). Then a simple tool interfaced the operations, still giving space to errors and inaccuracies. Now the training tool has become a complete “position manager”. I have in mind to call it R.Virgeel, but…
Artificial Intelligence is different
Trading is one of the easiest activities around: few seconds and you are in position, few seconds and you are out of your position. Making it profitable is a totally different discourse. Libraries are plenty of technical and fundamental analysis books and the internet is plenty of websites that offer amazing returns. All of them…
Artificial Intelligence core explained
It’s not my aim to explain how Artificial Intelligence works and I never tried to, just sometimes I’ve discussed the media approach on the topic. I’ve seen this video and it explains quite well how the core of this technology works. We are speaking about back-propagation neural network, the pattern recognition engine that works at…
The hidden disorder of the market
Often, you read someone that has the key of the “hidden order” of the markets and is so kind and altruist to share such a knowledge with you. Can you trust? Can you believe? In my opinion, after years of testing and developing the artificial intelligence model that powers this site, there is no hidden…
Does this stock market scares you?
I read an article today that highlights the fact that a lot of investors are scared by this current stock market. The stock market is moving opposite to almost any prevision made by mainstream media, it should have crashed after Trump election or Brexit, and instead it is rising madly and without rest. All this rises confusion…
Never seen before
In the rising market, you are continuously convinced that a crash is imminent and this is the fuel that makes the market grow, having a lot of people on the wrong side. We are watching it in the latest months, whenever the downturn seems inevitable, the market turns up blindly, no way. If I should…
Two is better than one
Time to update about the development. The alternative weekly model is under alfa testing and should need data to feed it. It has grown to a complete new model, even if it has not yet a name: maybe A1model. Or Bmodel. It has not yet a different personality, it just replicate the Amodel with some…
Sharper, sharper we go
Latest days were hard. I do not mean bad, but hard. It was evident that the model was in crisis. Maybe the fact that the market is going into a never seen territory, or maybe due to its internal conditions, actually I’m not sure of the cause, but I was aware of the disrupted path…