No More Guesswork!
Better Know In Advance!
r. Virgeel A.I. is a robo-advisor for investors and traders
dedicated to the S&P 500 stock market index only.
User please log in/out here:
If any issue during the log in process, please write to moc.leegrivr@ofni
Invest with r.Virgeel AI on your side
r.Virgeel is a specialized robo-advisor focused on exclusively analyzing and forecasting the S&P 500 stock market index. This website delivers analysis an forecasts brewed from a proprietary AI model
Since 2015
This website documents the development and operations of r.Virgeel
the proprietary artificial intelligence that analyzes the S&P 500 stock market index.
Join r. Virgeel and access timely and accurate forecasts, empowering you to make informed investment decisions and maximize your returns. r.Virgeel indicators may easily adapt to your existing trading experience and tools.
Who We Are
A.I. model dedicated to SPX produces unbiased reports based on a large database of price data series.
Read my history here.
r.virgeel
Architect, programmer, loves sailing and photography, in the market mainly as an investor since the late eighties
Luca
Aren’t you tired of fighting against the market and losing money?
Let the market be your friend and help you build your wealth.
I perfectly know that every trader and every investor has its own style and I do not ask you to change it. Just add the AI indicators to your set of tools, to reduce the uncertainty of day-by-day decisions. r.Virgeel’s indicators are bias-free, no human opinion is involved. It may be a simple way to get relief from the continuous need to make decisions based on your own interpretation of technical and/or fundamental analysis indicators: it may be very stressful and stress induces errors and errors raise stress more. It may be an exploding psychological short circuit.
Predicting the market
Predicting is a risky business, especially if it is about the future. (Yogi Berra)
Most analysts and market theoreticians consider it is impossible to forecast the markets.
The development of the a.i. model started in early 2013, the site has been online since late 2015.
Please, note: r.Virgeel is not a trading system. It provides signals, but it’s up to you to adapt them to your investment/trading strategy. The underlying model is unique: it has been developed for years to offer a clear and simple outlook of incoming waves in the market.
All the techniques I’ve read about to analyze and predict the financial market (and there are many in recent years) use the data of the index as the base of the work, applying various types of neural networks and outputting poor results.
For technicals, take a bunch of Python libraries and some standard scripting and you see YouTube plenty of videos of subjects that pretend to be able to forecast everything in financial markets. It doesn’t work that way. Markets are a living matter, highly complex and interrelated.
r.Virgeel is different: its proprietary and unique algorithms analyze dozens (many dozens!) of financial, economic and market instruments in three different time frames (daily, weekly and monthly) to be able to rebuild the index without ever having seen it. In this way, the analysis and forecast are totally unbiased, being the straight result of powerful number crunching.
r.Virgeel is a robo-advisor for investors and traders who want an objective unbiased view of the stock market without any personal opinions. The model provides a bunch of indicators that will help you understand the market’s activity and prepare for important events.
Simply put: you will know in advance.
Becoming a trader and an investor
We need instruments to manage market noise and dig inside complex ever-changing relations, as society itself is deeply changing, now faster than ever. We need an independent view of the market, abstract and unbiased, the opposite of the continuously manipulated information we are subject to.
Trading is one of the easiest activities around: a few seconds and you are in position, a few seconds and you are out of your position. Making it profitable is a totally different discourse.
Libraries have plenty of technical and fundamental analysis books and the internet has plenty of websites that offer amazing returns. All of them (except some you can count on one hand’s fingers) do the same one-dimensional analysis, based on the tape, and the fluctuating price of the chosen instrument. The variety of tools available is confusing, but basically, they all work on moving averages and momentum, and sometimes volatility. So, you have, basically, just a one-dimensional analysis based on momentum. And you lose money, as you get stuck in your own decision process.
What You Get
The Alpha-Chart is ready every trading day, around 23:30 (CET-Rome),
London 22:30, New York: 17:30, San Francisco: 14:30,
Sydney: 07:30, Tokyo: 06:30, Shanghai: 05:30, Mumbai: 04:00
Daily Forecast
Every day, about one hour after the market close, the r.Virgeel analysis is ready.
Weekly Forecast
Every Friday evening, a few minutes after the daily forecast, the new updated weekly outlook is available.
Monthly Forecast
On the first of every month, in the early hours, the monthly forecast is published.
r.Virgeel forecasts are responsive and adaptive, meaning that as new data enters the model, the output is recalculated without any memory of previous forecasts. No bias.
Also, the models are hand trained. This is a fundamental feature because the markets are living matters and as all living beings, they may respond to similar inputs in very different, even opposite, ways. Training is a crucial component of A.I., it is very time-consuming and it requires a lot of precision to achieve good results.
The main rule for any A.I. model is: garbage in, garbage out.
Training a neural network means transferring knowledge to the data. You associate, tag, mark, you name it, a certain record in your database to a certain “meaning”. The unique ability of neural networks is to project these “meanings”, to apply the meaning to present conditions, not based on an abstract theory or a personal opinion, but crunching the real numbers.
Indicators
List of r.Virgeel indicators, all are calculated through separate neural network models.
- rv.NextBars: estimates the H/L/C values of the next 24 bars (about a month in the daily model, about six months in the weekly model, and two years in the monthly model).
- rv.Position: determines the optimal market position in three distinct values: overall using all data, then using only positive day data, and finally using only negative day data to confirm and reduce possible ambiguities.
- rv.Target: estimates the target of the current movement. It is very sensible.
- rv.Stop: Calculates the stop value below which the position should be closed.
- rv.BuySell: The initial version of the Buy/Sell signal generator, which evolved into rv.Position over time. + 1 or more is an entry long signal, while the opposite -1 or less provides enter short signals.
- rv.ExpectedTurn: estimates how many bars are left until the next reversal.
- rv.NextCycle: estimates how many bars are left until the start of the next cycle (from low to low).
- rv.LongTerm: estimates the long-term attitude of the market.
- rv.Stamina+: how much residual energy remains for positive action (100% at the beginning of the long position, 0% at the end)
- rv.Stamina-: how much residual energy remains for negative action (100% at the beginning of the short position, 0% at the end)
Primary indicators: rv.Position / rv.Target / rv.Stop / rvBuySell
Confirmation indicators: rv.Position+ / rv.Position- / LongTerm / Stamina+ / Stamina-
Pure estimations : rv.ExpectedTurn / rv.NextCycle
NB. rv.NextBars is a lisergic indicator. It shows the less improbable path given the most recent conditions.
Samples
This is a sample of the daily analysis and forecast chart.
It is from the 17th of April 2024
and this is the S&P 500 daily chart with the forecasted period highlighted.
This is a sample of the weekly forecast chart. It was brewed on the 7th of July 2023
and this is the forecasted period highlighted on the weekly S&P 500 chart.
I leave to you any comment on the quality of the forecasts and the help they may provide to your trading skills.
I just want to point out that some inevitable imperfections are due – again – to the fact that the S&P 500, as all market instruments, is an alive matter and the general attitude always develops and manifests in slightly different shapes. r.Virgeel is adaptive and reactive every single new bar.
The most frequent question is
“what about performance?”
r.Virgeel is NOT an automatic trading system, it is a robo-advisor: it makes analysis that easily integrate with your own trading style, supporting your decisions and giving you an unbiased outlook of the S&P 500. It crunches numbers, not human opinions.
Try r.Virgeel
now worthier than ever
This new website has been designed to be more efficient, cheaper and simpler to maintain than the previous one, so I’m now able to reduce the subscription costs without sacrificing the quality of the service.
A further discount is available for new subscribers during the launching period, using the discount code NEW2024
Save 20% on the yearly subscription or 30% on the three-month one.
Subscribe and push your market approach
Test the r.Virgeel indicators, if they fit with your market activity and objectives.
At any time, you are free to cancel your subscription without any obligation.
Testimonials
Do you want to know more?
Read The Blog
The public blog collects many insights into the r.Virgeel building and working model.
Go to the blog
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