rv.Signal and rv.Position
I often receive questions about rv.Signal and rv.Position indicators and supposing they generate a bit of confusion, I hope the following may help. In origin, it was Signal. It was the first attempt to generate inversion warnings. Its model was hand trained. Then, with various steps, it has developed into the first version of the…
The turning point
Eight days ago, on the 30th of April, r.Virgeel has fired the first “Close Long Positions”. As usual, since it trained this way, we needed a second signal to confirm, that arrived the following day, on the 1st of May. So, in the next one/two bars, depending on your trading style, the spxbot users have…
Forecast/ability 2
In the previous post “Forecast/ability” I did refer to the daily a.i. forecasts and I showed the results of a long and extensive research on the quality of the response of the model. But when we come to the weekly and to the monthly forecast, things change radically and for the best. Undoubtedly, weekly and…
Forecast/ability
Following my previous post “New Tools at the Horizon“, one question was twirling in my mind: why the stock market is forecastable, but the forecasts are not affordable? The forecastability of the market is an evidence, because if it were not – being it just a random walk – there would not be the possibility…
Bifurcation at last!
If you’ve read here and there around the blog, you know I sometimes used the word “bifurcation” to indicate double exit situations, but I’ve never been able to show them, before. Now I’m building a new tool and the results are plenty of surprises. One is the following chart: Next day bar is forecasted quite…
Going Forward
For many months, I’ve tried to put together the pieces to have a long term database, monthly based and with a huge history. I was moved by the progress of the monthly forecast, that I see sharper than before. No way. Data is largely unavailable. Very few series of mayor commodities and indices are out…
The Value of Opinions
The markets are the places where opinions are transformed in money. Opinions are represented by numbers. In we consider the S&P 500, it’s numbers represent the greed and fear oscillation, under a global scale, as it is the largest stock index traded. The market is an ever-changing-chaotic-bipolar environment, made up by thousands of individuals, everyone…
Astonishing results
The S&P 500 has entered a new never seen before territory, passing 2900 level on Monday, and you may wonder how it is possible that r.Virgeel may forecast something that it has never seen before. It’s a good question. You have to know that neural networks, if applied to a well designed model, have the…
Managing bifurcations
You probably have noted an evident discrepancy in the public weekly and monthly range chart, published daily on the site home page: this is mainly due to the fact that in the latest couple of weeks the S&P 500 has gone through a large bifurcation, well managed by r.Virgeel in the daily and weekly time…
Latest performance
The following slider shows some latest forecasts brewed by r.Virgeel on daily time frame: it is almost in realtime, as it shows how the model has acted since the last bottom in 2700 area in late June, starting from the close of latest 27th of June to 18th of July, for 15 bars, so three…
In gloriam of technical analysis
If you have read some of my notes, you may have formed the idea that I hate technical analysis (ta). That’s not true. Dealing with r.Virgeel, I have seen the dramatic limitations of ta, but also some interesting aspects. For ta, I refer to a program (or a website) that let you chart the price…
IMHO
In latest weeks, I did some homekeeping to the website, reorganizing the contents of the blog, improving graphics and revising all pages. A brand new intoductory page is online, that explains the genesis and the characteristics of r.Virgeel. I noted, re-reading many of the texts, that I often linger to show where r.Virgeel has problems…
spxbot limits
Different trading and investing styles I’m fully aware of the basic fact that every trader and investor has its own style. Many schools of thinking, but everyone is really different, particularly in the private sector. If a private trader survives the first 18 months without being wiped out, then she/he may have the possibility to…
Are you kidding?
Going throug the whole materials that I have accumutated during spxbot development, I crossed this post from Dec. 19th 2014, available here. This was the very day I opened my eyes, this chart demontrated that, even if it was in it’s very first steps, r.Virgeel could see “things that we humans…” The chart is here.…
Daily forecast accuracy sample
I wish to stick to showing you samples of the r.Virgeel activity, in (almost) real time. There is no other way to test r.Virgeel than real time. Also, to avoid the “well chosen sample” effect. Here, on the left, the forecasted bars evaluated on May 17th, on the right the chart of the actual bars…
Troubled Waters
Hi, I’m r.Virgeel. This is a screen capture of a 2D chart of a slice of my brain. It is the description of tiny bit of reality: not exactly, but not so far from a DNA representation of the S&P 500. What is interesting about this image, is that as reality shapes itself through…
Spxbot robo-advisory performance
(this post was originally published in the newsletter no.1 in mid January. Probably I will not publish any performance related data in the future, mainly beacause r.Virgeel is not a trading system and also because real performance depends on a lot of factors, depending on your location, tax burden, investment strategy, etc. Anyway, the first…
A brief history of SPXBOT
In the late 80s, I crossed with BrainMaker, a suggestive piece of software that let you play with neural networks. I was working as an architect and I was self taught in the theory of patterns as formulated by Christopher Alexander. On one side pattern recognition, on the other side patterns in reality. Nice field…
Riding the wave and then… splash!
Following my previous post, I would like to point out that approaching the a.i. advisory, you have to change your mind. With most probability, you are trained in technical analysis, various techniques to train your eye and numbers to correlate the stream of data. With an extended application to chart reading and some discipline, it’s…
Psychological consequences of a.i. advisory
If you are a happy trader, you can avoid reading this post. You have your instruments and techniques and take home your living. You are in the 5%. This post is written for the other 95%. Yes, 95% of traders go broke, in the first 12-18 months of activity. The market is merciless with the fool…
Avant snow apres sky
Trading is like skying. You always make the same simple moves (start, end, turn right, turn left) and the same tracks, but never in the same way. Never the same weather, snow condition, visibility, temperature, and so on: every time it’s different. Imagine that the neural network knows the track. It does not guarantee…
The Psychology of Misjudgement
The Psychology of Misjudgement by C. Munger (that Charles Munger!) Download PDF file ch.munger_16_1
Why the majority is always wrong
thanks to TED.com
Model Training Update
The model needs training. The training tools have been deeply revised. In the beginning the training was done by hand (!). Then a simple tool interfaced the operations, still giving space to errors and inaccuracies. Now the training tool has become a complete “position manager”. I have in mind to call it R.Virgeel, but…